How many surplus rural labor force

 How much of rural surplus labor?
(This article is published in accordance with my Now Henbu clear. Over the years, China has been considered to be a labor-intensive Guo Jia, China has a dual structure led to a large number of rural surplus labor, and labor resources that a sufficient reserve is to our advantage, but also to China constitute huge employment pressure. As the number of rural surplus labor in the end need to be transferred, this problem has almost no make sense. On the one hand, in many people's minds, there are a large number of surplus rural labor. such as Cai Fang ( 2007) [6] pointed out that the prevailing argument is that rural areas are about 1 / 3 of the labor surplus, the absolute number of about 1 billion to 1.5 billion; and on the other hand, there are indications that China seems to have no rural surplus labor . such as years, pointed out that the elderly ) [10]. say the gap so large, in sharp contrast.
on China's current employment situation in rural areas has great significance to judge. In fact, faced with such a large divergence point of view, we must have done a correct and clear judgments. First of all, this relates to China's current labor-intensive industrial structure that is sustainable issues and the need to adjust the problem. China's current industrial structure (especially the southeast coast of the industrial structure) is mainly low-end labor-intensive industries, if the transfer of rural surplus labor has been completed, then it means that the industrial structure is no longer sustainable, China's industrial structure to be adjusted to the time; and if a large number of rural of surplus labor, then the current industrial structure to also be sustainable, but also need to continue for some time, until the transfer of rural surplus labor to be finished up. Second, it also involves the production of the conversion of agricultural and rural reform issues. If the transfer of rural surplus labor has been completed, then it means that the household contract responsibility system of the present potential has been excavated and exhausted, and even may have hindered the development of agricultural productivity, and thus China's rural land system, production organization and so on have to make adjustments; and if there is a large number of rural surplus labor, then the current agricultural production methods and a variety of institutional arrangements for rural areas there is a certain vitality, can be sustained.
So, how to judge China's current rural employment situation? one of the most direct and most accurate way is of the most authoritative national statistical offices of the statistics. National Bureau of Statistics does this work every year to do and, indeed, relevant data are often released, but several factors make We were unable to judge China's employment situation. First of all, how many of the rural labor force in the end? a retired urban workers, not classified to the labor force, hence counted as a member of the labor force more clearly. not the same as farmers, farmers do not retire that said, with urban workforce can not determine who belongs to the same labor force by age, who does not belong to labor. In fact, farmers can work as long as, no matter how old, the general should participate in the production. Therefore, the rural labor force poorly defined , will not determine the total number of rural labor force. Second, agriculture itself determine how much labor is not good. The so-called surplus labor, nature is beyond the needs of agricultural production and rural labor force. China's agricultural production itself, how much labor? this problem depends on at the level of agricultural technology, agricultural mechanization, natural conditions and many other factors, and is constantly changing, so is not good OK. labor mobility makes large statistical errors, especially the migrant peasant workers are hard to Statistics . Third, in excess of demand for labor in agricultural production, how many have moved out? this problem is difficult to ascertain. rural surplus labor is equivalent to the total rural labor force minus the demand for labor in the agricultural sector, less has been transferred out of the labor force, and these three statistics clearly not an easy one. reflected in the statistics, the natural errors are greater. Thus, this approach is difficult employment situation in China to make a direct, accurate judgments.
No direct way, consider an indirect approach. This indirect approach to two: one is based on the basic principles of economics, supply and demand based on the number of labor market indicators to determine the outside, a labor-based economic growth stimulating effect of the demand to make a general estimate. The first approach mainly migrant workers to consider changes in the level of real wages, so we called the we call indirect approach can not be excess or shortage of labor to make quantitative judgments level, only to make qualitative judgments. In fact, China's current employment situation, as long as they do qualitative judgments, it has been very easy. at least Our employment policies and other macroeconomic policies to provide some guidance.
Second, wage laws
known under the general principles of economics, a commodity's supply and demand will eventually be reflected in any change in price Therefore, the price reflects the supply and demand situation is a good indicator, although the price change will not tell us the specific changes in demand or supply the number, but it will give us a qualitative judgments about the supply and demand. We just need now is about China's farmers qualitative work to determine market demand and supply situation, therefore, changes in the wage level of migrant workers can reflect the number of rural surplus labor. If a large number of rural surplus labor, then competition among migrant workers so that wages will be maintained at a level and therefore there will be no major changes in wages, or wage increase rate is very low, up to maintain the same level with the price level; less surplus labor, or if not, with economic growth will increase the wages of migrant workers . Therefore, as economic growth, changes in wage levels of migrant workers can be divided into three stages. In the first stage, the economy, there are a lot of surplus labor, then as the economy grows, more and more demand for labor , less and less surplus labor, but wages do not rise. In the second stage, the rural surplus labor has been almost absorbed, when migrant workers are no longer unlimited supply, so as the economic growth and labor demand increase the wages of migrant workers to rise. This time of, say absorb rural surplus labor has been completed, because the current salary levels of all surplus rural laborers to work can find work if he did not work, it is because his or her current wage level too low, otherwise he or she is a little bit lower wage requirements (note that this is the first stage than when there are a lot of surplus labor has gone up compared to the wages of) to find a job. But this stage, the migrant workers the same wage level is lower than the wages of the urban workforce qualification levels, with the rise in wages of migrant workers, there will be willing to transfer of rural labor, but labor is not in the strict sense of the surplus labor . In the third stage, the wage level of migrant workers to achieve the same qualification level of urban wage labor force, this time completely eliminate the differences between urban and rural areas, surplus labor to be thoroughly unassimilated.
changes that determine the wage labor force according to the situation is with its solid economic foundation. First of all, the general principles of economics, the price of a commodity depends on the trend also reflects the trend of supply and demand for this commodity. an infinite supply of goods, no matter how important, are not there will be market value, such as air, things in the world can not exist from the air, but not who will pay the cost for the use of air, because the supply unlimited, of course, not pay increasingly high prices. migrant workers the same market. When When a lot of surplus labor, companies do not have to pay high wages to the farmers can hire enough workers, the wages of migrant workers will not rise, of course. If the real wages of migrant workers continued to rise, and rise much higher than when the wages of urban workers , we can confirm that there is no surplus labor in rural areas have a.
Secondly, the development of economics told us that most developing countries go through a dual process of economic development, its prominent feature is the surplus rural labor force is industrialization and the provision of adequate supply of cheap labor, but in the early stages of economic development, slower wage growth, the employment relationship is not conducive to workers, urban-rural income gap continued to be maintained. This process will continue until the supply of labor from the infinite into a finite supply, and finally surplus labor is fully digested, the economic growth of the modern stage. As the theoretical framework of dual economic development by economists, Lewis (Lewis, 1954) [4] proposed, therefore, that an unlimited supply of labor from the changes to the shortage, but also known as the labor shortages, has spread from coastal areas to the central region, and even labor output provinces. Cai Fang (2007) [6] pointed out: As a necessary consequence of the shortage of labor, since the late 20th century, 90 years, urban formal labor market every year, experiencing double-digit wage increases, not only in monopoly industries, but also in the main absorption of ordinary workers are employed in the manufacturing industry (see table below). as a lagging response to the wage level of migrant workers has increased accordingly. For example, in 1997 to 2005, real wages for urban workers increased by 161.7 percent, while rural migrants in urban employment, raise wages of labor even faster. According to a survey in five major cities, during the period 2001 to 2005, foreign labor-hour rate of wage increase than the city-hour increase in wages of local workers, high-speed 64% (Cai Fang, 2007) [6].
Table 1 the average wage in certain industries, the actual growth rate of the extractive industries

manufacturing
Post
reservoir construction
delivery of social services wholesale and retail food

1995
5.34
3.33
1.2
4.54
2.82
1.9
1996
3.49
0.32
-0.72
4.11
0.85
4.14
1997
2.24
1.99
3.29 < br> 5.99
0.82
8.08
1998
6.63
19.78
12.71
14.74
21.79
10.99
1999
5.21
11.78
8.46
13.53
10.85
12.62
2000
10.01
11.37
8.56
11.19
11.15
10.73
2001 < br> 14.15
10.93
7.83
14.21
13.15
14.01
2002
16.09
13.69
9.48
14.39
15.88
14.88
2003
23.08
12.57
10.66
-1.34
na
na
2004
19.39
8.72
7.71
11.4
na
na
2005
20.32
10.52
10.52
14.34
na
na
Source: Cai Fang (2007) [6] (author Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Post construction and storage industry to pay the average wage in 2005, respectively, the average wage in 1999, 2.34,1.71,1.56 and 1.62 times the growth rate can be very rapid, and this period's inflation rate was not high in China Therefore, the real wages of migrant workers has increased significantly. Based on the wage increases, we can think of migrant workers already in the second phase of the market, transfer of rural surplus labor has been basically completed.
Third, an increase of the second law
indirect approach is based on the situation of China's economic growth in the overall employment situation in the present to make a general judgments. We know that with the economic expansion, labor demand will increase. Therefore, the estimated economic growth as long as the demand for labor stimulating effect, can be estimated from the growth of demand for labor, then a Year, based on estimates of demand for labor, can be calculated for all years of the labor force needs. This approach is based on economics, economic growth accounting method. According to this method, the growth of an economy by technological progress, capital growth, labor force growth and the realization of other growth factors, each factor's contribution to economic growth depends on the flexibility of the component outputs. Under this approach, If we know the labor force growth rate of economic growth, economic growth and the labor elasticity of output to the estimated growth rate of the labor demand. Economic growth in the data we have.
labor force growth on economic growth the contribution rate of the data not be. Chow and Lin (2002) [1], Wang Xiaolu (2000) [11], Wang and Yao (2003) [5], Gapinski (2001) [2] estimated that China's labor force growth over economic growth rate, as shown below. but not with their estimates. First, they estimated the results fall far short of labor force growth rate of economic growth as low as 5.7%, up to 44.05%, it is difficult choice. Second, even if these data are accurate, nor can. The reason is that these results is that they are based on estimated economic growth accounting approach, if used these data to estimate the same way and then turn the growth rate of labor input is tautology. Well, since this articles use economic growth accounting approach, then we must have data on labor force growth, why not just use their data? because I think their labor data error may be big, because China has so far not good data on labor input.
Table 2
China's economic growth rate of economic growth during the
(%)
TFP growth
rate (%) capital share of the labor share


human
share capital
offer
TFP contribution rate

(%)
labor contribution
offered rate
(%)< br>
rate of contribution of capital
(%)
the contribution of human capital

rate (%)
Source
1978-1998
9.3
2.60
0.53
6.17
-
27.96
5.70
66.34
-
Chow and Lin (2002) [1]
1979 - 1999
8.3
1.46
0.81
5.10
0.93
17.59
9.76
61.45
11.2
Wang Xiaolu (2000) [11]
1978-1999
9.46
2.40
1.50
4.51
1.04
25.4
15.9
47.7
11.0
Wang and Yao (2003) [5 ]
1971-1998
7.9
1.87
3.48
2.55
-
23.67
44.05
32.28
-
Gapinski (2001) [2]
Source: Lin, Su Jian (2007) [7]
the absence of labor input on the growth of reliable data, we have to take some workarounds. Here, we simply assume that the Chinese labor force growth on the economic growth rate of 20%, the remaining 80% by technological progress, institutional innovation, capital accumulation and other factors to achieve. Obviously, for our country such a labor-intensive countries, this assumption is very conservative, in the China's economic growth in the contribution of labor is likely to be much larger [1]. Here, we look at projections based on the assumption that changes in labor demand in China.
the last 30 years, the average annual growth rate of close to China's economic 10%. assume that the Chinese labor force growth on the economic growth rate of 20%, it means one of 2 percentage points from growth in use of labor to achieve. no longer assume that the labor elasticity of output is 0.5 [2], which means that the use of labor for each increase of 1 percentage point to GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points to make. So, in turn, to increased use by labor to achieve the economic growth of 2 percentage points, labor use have increased by 4 percentage points . and if the use of labor per year growth of 4%, which means it will double the amount of 17.5 years of employment, 30 annual growth rate is 224%, that is, 30 years later, labor usage is 3.24 times 30 years ago, .1978 China's total population is 9.6 million, 407 million economically active population, total employment was 4.02 million. If this is not the amount of surplus labor in employment, then labor demand is now on China's 1.3 billion, with China's current population about the same. Of course, whether in 1978 or the business of agricultural enterprises and government departments have a large number of surplus staff. assuming 40% of the labor force in 1978, is the surplus workers, 60% of the production required (this ratio is speculation), that , assuming that China's economy in 1978, demand for natural labor force is 2.4 million (for a population of 960 million to feed our economy, so much the minimum requirements for employment is probably not too far away), then if the labor demand growth of 4% per year, By 2007 the demand on China's labor force was 7.8 million, close to China's economically active population in 2007, so surplus rural labor force is likely to have been absorbed completed. Of course, these are hypothetical, the actual situation, we do not know . Anyway, in the last 30 years, China's total economic output increased to 15 times more than the beginning, with such a substantial increase in the total economy, the demand for labor increased by 2 times, it should be not too much.
four summarized
two indirect methods above will help us to understand our current employment situation. where the first method has the background support of economic theory, so the most scientific and most reliable. The second method taken a number of assumptions, so a rough estimate of the results, the reliability is low, only the results of the first approach as circumstantial evidence. In fact, on the transfer of rural surplus labor force has completed a lot of circumstantial evidence, listed earlier water Zhangxue Jian, deputy director of the Department of Soil and Water Conservation (2005) [13] findings and Xuzhou Agricultural Resources Development Bureau (2006) [10] is the obvious example of official documents, in fact, the situation in the country have reported the existence of and Cai Fang (2007) [6] through field survey also drew the same conclusion. to the author, the author's home in the countryside, so familiar with the situation of the village, the reality is I do village of surplus labor Transfer finished. Therefore, there are indications that young labor force in rural areas has been transferred is completed, remain in the rural farming less competitive overseas workers or those not suitable for migrant people. Anyway, in recent years, a sharp rise in wages for migrant workers , Labor Shortage in China sustained rapid economic growth in recent decades is an undeniable fact. In fact, up to 30 years of rapid economic growth, if the surplus rural labor transfer has not been finished, is indeed a must we strange.
even after 30 years of rapid growth, China's economic situation has undergone enormous change, but many of our people to judge the situation on the Chinese economy still stuck in 30 years, .30 years ago before the existence of a large number of rural surplus labor, that no one recognized. in fact, was not only a large number of surplus laborers in rural areas, towns, too, when a large number of urban youth did not work, the employees of state-owned enterprises, there are also a large number of redundant staff, per person per day very light workload. now? While urban employment situation is grim, but the people who have been employed, whether state-owned enterprises and non state-owned enterprises which are not working at full capacity? these show that China's employment situation in the 30-year high After growth of fundamental changes have taken place, not 30 years ago, a large number of surplus labor situation. With economic development, we judge the economic situation must also be with the times, always a good grasp of the economic situation in China in order to make the right response.
One might question, in 2009 China has emerged influx of returning migrant workers, how could that have no surplus labor in rural areas? influx of returning migrant workers there, this is true, but it caused the financial crisis , and a cyclical phenomenon, we are talking about long-term problems. The reason why the previous surplus labor unemployment, and shortage of capital; and now the characterized by labor and capital are unemployed. In fact, these people are already transferred out of the labor force, they have essentially no difference between urban workforce, and their unemployment and the unemployed urban workforce basically the same nature. Thus, at least said they had not appears.
number of surplus rural labor in China is difficult to judge. This indirect approach to infer the number of rural surplus labor, in fact, the absence of sufficient data do nothing approach. For most of the labor market situation accurate, the most direct terms of labor statistics to determine need for large-scale investment and reform, this is by no means an individual or agency can do a thing. We look forward to all the detailed, accurate and comprehensive data appears.
Reference Document:
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[7] Lin, Su Jian, On the transformation of economic growth in China [J]. Management World, 2007 (11): 5-13.
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[1] 1980-1996 growth in the U.S. labor force, the average contribution to economic growth was 40.6 % (Mankiw, 2000, according to calculations in Table 5-3 on page 118) [9]. In theory, China is a labor-intensive countries, labor is cheaper, so companies in the expansion of production scale, it should be more inclined to use of labor, so the Chinese labor force growth rate of economic growth should be greater than the United States. But Lin, Su Jian (2007) [7] that China's macro-economic environment factor is the price system led enterprises more willing to use capital, so we Can not the U.S. labor force growth rate of economic growth as China's economic growth, labor force growth on the bottom line contribution.
[2] Jefferson and Su (2006) [3] Application of large and medium industrial enterprises in China of these data to estimate enterprise output elasticity of labor is 0.42, this conservative estimate and in order to facilitate the calculation, using 0.5.